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History Table of Contents
1999 Winter Conference
Winter Conference 1999
The New Europe and the Atlantic Relationship
Growth, change and opportunities...a comprehensive evaluation


By Donald Coxe, Chairman and Chief Strategist,
Harris Investment Management Inc.

  • The Euro is probably not a replacement for the dollar -- or even for the yen.
  • A single currency should represent a single economy with internal substitutionality: the Euro doesn't and probably won't
  • Canada is virtually unaffected because Canada does 80% of its trade with the US, and most of its external debt is US dollar-denominated
  • The Euro was conceived in envy at a time when the only challenge to price stability came from inflation. It is launched at a time when the primary challenge to price stability comes from deflation.
  • 11 languages and cultures -- one currency. A mini-esperanto.
  • It was conceived at a time when virtually all European governments were centre-right; today nine participants are left or centre-left; only Spain and Ireland are centre-right; the ECB is bound to face problems in its control structure when the next recession comes, amid rapidly-deteriorating European demography.